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制高点-第23章

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MARGARET THATCHER: Thank you very much。
玛格丽特。撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher):非常感谢。
LECH WALESA: Without this meeting; there would not have been no victory; that's for sure。 There would have been delay; greater difficulties; or even our destruction。
莱克。瓦文萨(Lech Walesa):如果没有这次会面,可能就没有后来的成功,真的,就可能会延迟,可能会遭遇更大的困难,甚至最终我们会失败。
NARRATOR: Thatcher's freemarket message seemed to offer an escape from a Polish economy that was debtridden and riddled with shortages。
旁白:撒切尔的自由市场信息似乎也给债务负担沉重、物资短缺的波兰经济提供了走出泥潭的办法。
DANIEL YERGIN: As the munist economies got into deeper and deeper trouble; reformers and economists within the Soviet world began to look outside for solutions and for alternative paths。 They looked at the miracle economies of Asia; they looked at what was happening in the United States and in Western Europe; and they looked even as far as Latin America。
丹尼尔。尤金(Daniel Yergin):随着共产主义经济陷入越来越深的困境,苏联社会的改革家和经济学家们开始向外界寻求解决方案和其他路径。他们研究了亚洲的经济奇迹,研究了美国和西欧当时的发展,他们甚至还研究了遥远的拉丁美洲。


Chapter 10: Bolivia at the Brink '7:07'
第十章:处在悬崖边上的###
Onscreen title: La Paz; Bolivia
字幕标题:###,拉巴斯
NARRATOR: One of the poorest countries in Latin America and with a history of 189 military coups; Bolivia was also one of the most unstable。
旁白:###是拉丁美洲最贫穷的国家之一,它的历史中有过189次军事政变。它也是最不稳定的国家之一。
JE QUIROGA; President; Bolivia: When I was going through college in Texas; the first question you'd be asked is ";Who's the president of Bolivia this week?"; Second question down the road was ";You're from Bolivia  what's the inflation rate in Bolivia this week?;"; because we had galloping hyperinflation that destroyed our economic base。
###总统乔治。昆拉伽(Je Quiroga):当我在德克萨斯上大学时,人们见到我问的第一个问题通常是“这周的###总统是谁啊?”,接下来的第二个问题便是:“你从###来?###这周的通货膨胀率是多少啊?”因为我们承受着恶性的通货膨胀,它摧毁了我们的整个经济基础。
GONZALO ";GONI"; SANCHEZ DE LOZADA; President; Bolivia; 19931997: We found that Bolivia was the seventh highest inflation in the history of man。
###总统(19931997)孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo ";Goni"; Sanchez De Lozada):我们发现###的通货膨胀率是人类历史上第七高的通货膨胀率。
JUAN CARIAGA; Finance Minister; Bolivia; 19861988: Twentythree thousand; five hundred percent。 Prices increased by the hour。
###财政部长(19861988)胡安。卡里加(Juan Cariaga):通货膨胀率是23500%价格每小时都在上涨。
NARRATOR: The cost of food and clothes kept increasing。 Before it was all over; the total inflation averaged 1 percent every 10 minutes。
旁白:食品和服装的成本持续上涨。在这场恶性通货膨胀结束之前,总通胀率平均起来是每10分钟上涨1%。
JE QUIROGA: Seven out of 10 Bolivians live in poverty。 The poor people get hurt even more。 They see their pockets being eaten away by inflation that is galloping around。
乔治。昆拉伽(Je Quiroga):70%的###人生活在贫困之中,穷人经受的痛苦更大,他们眼看着自己的口袋被肆虐的通货膨胀所榨干。
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: It's like a tiger; hyperinflation: If you don't kill it and you only have one bullet; it'll eat you。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo  Sanchez De Lozada):恶性通货膨胀就像是一只老虎,你仅有一颗子弹,如果你射不死它的话,它便会吃了你。
NARRATOR: The root of the problem was government finances。 The government was spending 30 times more than it received in taxes。
旁白:问题的症结在于政府的财政赤字,政府的开支是其税收收入的30倍之多。
Across the continent; Latin America's unpetitive economies had been piling up debt。 In the 1970s; a massive hike in world oil prices left foreign banks awash with petrodollars。
拉丁美洲大陆国家经济普遍缺乏竞争力,这使得它们背负了沉重的债务负担。70年代,世界石油价格的飞涨使得许多外国银行充斥了太多的石油美元。
ARNOLD HARBERGER: So here were the international banks with billions of dollars and nowhere to earn interest on it。 They discovered Latin America。
阿诺德。哈勃(Arnold Harberger):许多国际银行闲置着大量的美元,找不到投资去处,他们发现了拉丁美洲。
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: We were offered unreasonable amounts of money。 These banks who were very unwise in their lending policy came to the happy conclusion that countries don't go broke。 It's true; but sometimes they don't pay。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo  Sanchez De Lozada):这些大银行给我们提供了过多的贷款,银行在制定他们的贷款政策时是很不明智的,他们兴致盎然地认为国家是不可能破产的。是的,国家是不可能破产,可是有时候国家也可能赖债的。
MOISES NAIM: Guess what? One day; these countries could no longer afford to repay the debts。
莫伊斯。尼曼(Moises Naim):想想是什么情况吧,有一天,这些国家再也无力偿还这些债务了。
NARRATOR: In 1982 a financial crisis in Mexico triggered a chain reaction that caused the 1980s to be known as Latin America's ";lost decade";。
旁白:1982年,墨西哥的金融危机引发了一系列的连锁反应,从而导致了我们常说的:80年代是拉丁美洲“失去的10年”。
JOSEPH STANISLAW; Author; manding Heights: Bolivia was probably the most severe case of how things had gone wrong in Latin America。 For decades they just printed money。 They collected no taxes in the country。 If you can't collect taxes; you've got to make the money up somehow; so they just printed it。
《制高点》(manding Heights)作者约瑟夫。斯坦利斯诺(Joseph Stanislaw):拉丁美洲的情况很糟糕,而###的情况可能是最为严重的,在几十年中,他们仅仅是在不断地印钞票,没有税收收入。而如果你收不上税,你可能就不得得想法子凑钱,所以他们便印钞票。
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: Bolivia was a basket case。 We were considered hopeless。 We had help from nobody。 We were totally alone。 The World Bank had closed its office; the IMF had pulled out its representative; and the American government and other friendly nations wouldn't answer the telephones。
孔塞洛。桑切斯。洛塞塔(Gonzalo  Sanchez De Lozada):###陷进了漩涡,我们被认为毫无希望了,没有人来帮助我们,我们完全靠自己在那里挣扎。世界银行关闭了他们的办事处,国际货币基金组织撤走了他们的代表,美国政府和其它一些原来友好的国家都不接我们的电话。
Onscreen title: Harvard University; USA
字幕标题:美国,哈佛大学
NARRATOR: At 29; economist Jeff Sachs had just bee one of Harvard's youngest full professors ever。
旁白:29岁的年轻经济学家杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeff Sachs)刚刚成为哈佛大学的一名最年轻的全职终生教授。
JEFFREY SACHS: In 1985; some former students sent me a note asking whether I would be ready to e to a meeting with a group of visiting Bolivians。
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):1985年,几个我以前的学生问我准不准备见一帮来自###的访问学者。
NARRATOR: The Bolivians had e to Harvard to take part in a seminar on the hyperinflation that was ravaging their country。
旁白:###人是到哈佛来参加一个有关他们国家恶性通货膨胀的研讨会的。
JEFFREY SACHS: I was absolutely fascinated; made a few observations。 Somebody in the back of the room piped up and said; ";Well; if you think you know what to do; you e to La Paz。";
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):我被这个问题完全吸引了,做了一些观察并发了言。坐在房间后排的一个人大声喊道:“好吧,要是你知道怎么办,你就到拉巴斯来吧。”
When I got to La Paz in July 1985; the inflation rate was about 60;000 percent。 It was an extraordinary and terrifying thing to see; actually。 It was a society at the edge of the precipice。
当我1985年7月来到拉巴斯时,通货膨胀率大概为60,000%,这真是太不正常太可怕了,整个社会处在悬崖边缘,行将崩溃。
NARRATOR: Bolivia's politicians were paralyzed。 Only one man seemed to know what to do。
旁白:###的政治家们麻木了,只有一个人似乎知道该怎么办。
JEFFREY SACHS: I met a man at a cocktail party one of the evenings at work。 I didn't know him at all。 I introduced myself。 He said; ";What are you doing?"; I said; ";Oh; I'm writing an economic plan for the next government。";
杰裴里。萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs):一天晚上,我在一次工作之后的鸡尾酒会上遇到一个人,我根本就不认识这个人。我向他作了自我介绍,他问我:“你在干嘛?”我回答说:“哦,我正在为下一任政府制定经济计划。”
GONZALO SANCHEZ DE LOZADA: And I said; ";I'm very; very pleased that you're studying this; because we're going to beat these guys; and you can e and work for us。"; So they all laughed。
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